While ties between the United States and China have been strained under President Joe Biden, the two countries could be able to find a common ground in order to work together, to end the violence in Myanmar. The former US ambassador to Myanmar Scot Marciel said that both, the US and China do not want the situation in the Southeast Asian nation to worsen. A military coup on February 1 sparked widespread protests across Myanmar, and security forces have used force to quell the protests. According to the support group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the crackdown has killed 780 people so far, and over 3,800 people are also arrested. “My sense would be that this takeover, and definitely the chaos and conflict in Myanmar, I don’t see how it’s in China’s favour… my sense is China needs peace, for a variety of reasons, so my guess is they’re not pleased with this, but they’re cautious,” Marciel said on Friday during a webinar hosted by the Australian think tank Lowy Institute. “So, there may be some common interests between the United States and China in this, definitely in ending the bloodshed and instability,” said Marciel, who served as the United States’ ambassador to Myanmar from 2016 to 2020.
The United States and other Western countries have firmly denounced the coup and levied sanctions to put pressure on the military. Meanwhile, China’s reaction has been more subdued, with the Chinese government stressing the importance of peace. China is a big investor in Myanmar, and the two countries share a wall. According to some observers, China’s comparatively muted reaction could be detrimental to its own interests.
The crisis is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon
During the webinar, Rizal Sukma, senior researcher at Indonesia’s think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested that the United States and China might work together on the Myanmar problem by joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Last month, the international alliance convened an emergency meeting to discuss the escalating conflict in Myanmar. Its ten member states then issued a statement calling for an immediate cessation of violence and the appointment of a special envoy to mediate the Myanmar crisis. “ASEAN simply hopes that whatever initiative we have on the ground in Myanmar, the United States and China will contribute to that plan, for example, humanitarian assistance,” said Sukma, a former Indonesian diplomat.
Sukma expressed “frustration” that ASEAN has yet to name the special envoy to Myanmar two weeks after the declaration. He said that the regional grouping should “move on” with its proposal, so that it can begin talks with Myanmar’s various parties. Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday, that it is up to Myanmar’s military to determine if and when ASEAN can play a part. Balakrishnan said the military would end the brutality and free political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi and other freely elected officials. Only then, he said, will “honest direct negotiations” between the army and civilian leaders take place. “There will be no change in Myanmar until there is a national dialogue and reconciliation. Indeed, there are signs of a possible civil war,” said the minister.
Marciel expressed optimism that the group’s efforts would make “a little bit of headway” in Myanmar. However, it is difficult to see the situation ending very soon, which means more hardship for the people, he said. “It’s truly difficult to forecast. “I will assume the most possible outcome for the next few months — as far as I can see — is certainly more of the same,” he added. “I don’t see the (military) capitulating, and I don’t see the public accepting this coup.”
